Pancreatic cancer begins in the cells of the pancreas, an organ that aids digestion and regulates blood sugar through the hormones it produces. Risk increases with advancing age and is associated with tobacco use, long-standing diabetes, chronic pancreatic inflammation, and a family history of the disease, which makes the cancer a continuing concern for public health in the United States. Using national cancer surveillance data from the National Cancer Institute and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, county-level estimates of new cases in Arizona range from 10.0 to 13.2 per 100,000 people per year over the recent 5-year period, and the statewide rate is shown on the interactive map. These rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 U.S. standard population, a method that applies the same age structure to every area so that places with older or younger residents can be compared fairly.
Arizona Pancreatic Cancer Rates Compared to National Benchmarks
The national age-adjusted incidence rate of pancreatic cancer over the recent 5-year period is 13.5 new cases per 100,000 people per year, with a 95% confidence interval of 13.4 to 13.6. The statewide Arizona rate and its interval are displayed on the interactive map. At the county level, the estimate for every one of Arizona’s 15 counties is below the national rate, and the median of county estimates is 11.7 per 100,000 people. For 13 counties, the 95% confidence interval lies entirely below 13.5, indicating a statistically significant difference. The intervals for the other two include 13.5, so those counties are not statistically different from the national rate. No county has a rate statistically significantly above it.
Geographic Variation in Pancreatic Cancer Rates on the Arizona County Map
County estimates span about three rate points, from 10.0 to 13.2 per 100,000 people. Each estimate carries a confidence interval roughly two points wide, so small differences between counties should not be interpreted as meaningful. Estimates for counties with smaller populations are generally less stable, and this page does not rank individual counties. The rate and interval for each county can be viewed on the interactive map.
A rural-urban gradient is visible but not uniform. The median county estimate is 10.3 for the seven rural-classified counties and 12.2 for the eight urban-classified counties. Exceptions occur at both ends of the range: a rural-classified county has an estimate near the top, and an urban-classified county has one near the bottom. Because incidence reflects diagnosed cases and may be influenced by factors beyond underlying risk, a lower rate in an area should not be read as evidence of lower risk.
Recent Five-Year Pancreatic Cancer Trends in Arizona
Joinpoint regression applied to the recent 5-year period classifies each county’s incidence trend as rising, falling, or stable. A stable classification means that no statistically significant change was detected, not necessarily that rates are unchanged. Among Arizona’s 15 counties, 8 are falling, 5 are stable, and 2 are rising.
The national trend is classified as rising (0.8 percent), so Arizona’s most common county pattern, falling, contrasts with the national direction. Falling classifications are concentrated among urban-classified counties (6 of 8), whereas both counties with rising classifications are rural-classified, although the small number of counties calls for caution. The statewide trend classification is available on the interactive map, where each county’s rate, interval, and trend can be examined side by side.
FAQ
What is the pancreatic cancer incidence rate in Arizona?
County-level age-adjusted incidence rates in Arizona range from 10.0 to 13.2 new cases per 100,000 people per year, with a median of county estimates of 11.7. The statewide rate and its 95% confidence interval are displayed on the interactive map next to the national rate of 13.5. All rates are age-adjusted to the 2000 U.S. standard population.
Which counties in Arizona have the highest and lowest pancreatic cancer incidence rates?
County estimates extend from 10.0 to 13.2 new cases per 100,000 people per year, and rural-classified counties tend to fall toward the lower end of that range. Because estimates for smaller counties are less stable, this page does not rank individual counties. The interactive map shows every county’s rate and confidence interval.
Are pancreatic cancer incidence rates rising or falling in Arizona?
At the county level, falling trends are the most common classification: 8 of 15 counties are falling, 5 are stable, and 2 are rising. The statewide trend classification is displayed on the interactive map. Nationally, the trend is classified as rising.
This article was reviewed for scientific accuracy by Dr. Mosayeb Rostamian. The content is based on current evidence in epidemiology and infectious diseases and is intended for educational purposes only. It does not constitute medical advice and should not be used as a substitute for professional health consultation.
